READY2.BLOGSPOT.COM: 2006

The American services of meteorology envisage one lenient winter 2006/07 on the whole of the United States with temperatures above the normal thanks to the hot current El Nino in the Pacific, according to forecasts' made public Tuesday. These forecasts could involve a less great consumption of fuel and natural gas. However the winter will be colder than the precedent, which was the hotter fifth in the United States. “The reinforcement in the course of the El Nino current in the tropical zone of the Pacific Ocean should persist during all the winter with the possibility that it becomes more intense in the next months”, explains the oceanic and atmospheric administration American (NOAA). “The intensification of El Nino will have an influence on the localization and the force of the hot current above the Pacific Ocean what will affect precipitations and the temperatures in the whole of the United States”, Michael Halpert, the principal meteorologist of the center of forecasts of the climate indicated, with the NOAA. “This probably will involve less cold temperatures in the country than during the majority of the winters during which the El Nino current does not appear”, it added in an official statement posted on Internet site of the NOAA. However, the next winter will be colder than the precedent with on average from 5 to 10% of more than days of heating than into 2005/06. Last winter was the hotter fifth recorded in the United States with an average temperature of 2,4 degrees Celsius. Hottest was that of 1999/2000 with an average temperature of 2,8 degrees.

"A movement for people who have no roof of their own"

"If I pay my rent, I go hungry, so I don't pay and I become homeless"

In one of the world's biggest cities a communit who found their own answer homelessness face the streets again. Karin Goodwin reports from Sao Paulo It is the early morning light struggles I through the fine February drizzle, Sao Paulo's 18 million residents are waking up. On Avenida Paulista, the beating heart of the financial capital, well-heeled executives bustle to their chic offices in towering skyscrapers, while the occasional helicopter whirs overhead, whisking the super-rich across town.

Just a stone's throw away in the rundown city centre, many of an estimated homeless population of 20,000 are folding away makeshift beds constructed under bridges, flyovers and in doorways, where whole families often shelter. And just a few kilometres north, Jomarina Abreu Pires da Fonseca is standing outside 911 Prestes Maia, watching as the city comes to life.

Three years ago the crumbling 2 3-storey concrete block was one of a UN-estimated 39,000 abandoned buildings in the city. Then the fact that the hulking former textile factory had lain empty for IS years came to the attention of the Movimento Sem Teto de Centro (MSTC) -literally the Roofless Movement of the Centre - a grassroots organisation that grew out of a protest campaign in the early 90s to stop people going hungry in Brazil's most affluent city. The link between hunger and homelessness became clear to organisers.

"If I pay my rent, I go hungry, so I don't pay and I become homeless," they were repeatedly told. As those involved looked up at the abandoned buildings, an idea began to hatch. In 1997 MSTC occupied its first building with 1,000 people and in 2002, the occupation of Prestes Maia became the biggest in South America with 468 families taking up illegal residence. Jomarina, Prestes Maia co-ordinator, smiles as she remembers that day. Together the families of all ages and ethnicities held hands, marched to the front door, and forced it open.

"It was a very emotional moment," she explains. They moved the resident drug dealers on, removed 300 truckloads of rubbish from inside, cleaned it from top to bottom and divided each floor into 11 rudimentary apartments using hardboard partitions. They put in clandestine electricity, and running water reaches the eighth floor. The families fought to make it into a home.

Now their lives are getting even tougher. On February 5, the residents were served an eviction notice, on behalf of the current owner, entrepreneur Jorge Hamuche, who contested his rights over the building in the courts more than four years ago. It is rumoured he is about to sell, and sought to have his unwelcome residents removed by the middle of last week.

But the 2,000 people living there are not ready to simply scuttle away. Ivonete Araujo, 33, the principle co-ordinator of the movement, arrives on her way to crisis talks and leads us into the building. She understands all too well the residents' problems. Leaving her hometown of Riberao Preto in Sao Paulo state at 17, she came to the city looking for work and ended up sleeping under a viaduct. In the reception area, packed with communal bikes and buggies, she explains: "The families here risk ending up on the street. It's desperate. Everyone here is really frightened.

"A notice above the reception pays testament to what the families are going through. "Congratulations residents of Prestes Maia," it says. "For your courage, your determination and your will to win in this constant struggle."

Inside the building the walls are damp to the touch, mould grows in pockets, windows are broken, the plasterwork is crumbling, and 30 people share one bathroom on each floor. Yet a rich sense of community thrives. Residents illusion that Sao Paulo was "full of opportunities". With her partner Severino Manoel de Souza she sold fruit on a street stall but after the seventh time their goods were seized by authorities because they didn't have a licence, their meagre savings ran out. Arriving at the building she immediately felt supported by the community. "Everybody helps each other," she explains. "They share everything." When Roberta and Severino were collecting rubbish to recycle for a small profit, they found some old books and decided to start a library in the basement. "It helps outsiders see a different side to the movement," she says.

"We face real discrimination. And we want to prove that we're not dirty, not scum.

"I only went to school for three months - and I had to leave because I had to work to help my family. Now I'm striving to give others the opportunities that I never had."

Severino shows the way to the well-stocked library, walking slowly. In 1986 he fell from the ninth storey of a building where he was working as an electrician. Though he won his compensation 'On our own we wouldn't manage but united we can fight for our true objective; to find a home contribute £5 a month to the building's upkeep, cleaning rotas are strictly adhered to, weekly meetings are attended, and the apartments are decorated with children's drawings, salvaged antiques and books. On the llth floor, where Jomarina's extended family live, her daughter Fernanda Fonseca is feeding her cousin's eight-month-old child Atenas in her tiny but cosy two-room apartment. She looks surprised when asked what attracted her to the movement "We didn't come here for a greater cause - we came out of necessity," she says. "Everyone who is here today was in a desperate situation. On our own we wouldn't manage but united we can fight for our true objective; to find a home."

She is worried about ending up in a hostel. "There are drugs, and no security." She casts a worried eye at the tearfully teething Atenas. A few floors down Roberta Maria da Conceicao, 44, is also worried about the effect eviction would have on the children. "Of course we are worried but we are trying to hide it from the children," she says quietly, while her partner's five-year-old grandchild plays in the background. "When the police come, they cry."

Her story is typical of Prestes Maia. She came from the poor state of Pernambuco under the .claim he never received any money. Unable to work in his profession he put his skills to use in Prestes Maia. He has invested a lot in the building and is angry. "I just don't understand a system that lets this happen," he says. "Nobody is really interested in our problems."

Days later at a cultural event in the building, there is interest of sorts. A collective of artists who have been supporting Prestes Maia in recent months attract the attention of police, who arrive in riot gear as they make their peaceful protest outside. One resident of the building is taken away for helping graffiti messages of protest, and another young artist is sprayed with tear gas when he appeals against the injustice.

By Tuesday evening, the night before the proposed eviction, tensions are running high. Residents gather in the open plan basement waiting for the return of the coordinators who are in talks with the authorities. While they wait, two families gather their belongings and leave the building, knowing they sacrifice the option to return to the movement by doing so. Finally Ivonete strides triumphantly into the room and takes up the microphone. They have been granted 60 days grace, she tells them, during which negotiations with the housing department will continue. The hall erupts - people jump up, shouting, crying, kissing, hugging.

Through the noise Ivonete continues, emotionally thanking them for their bravery and determination to stay united. Everyone takes up the chant: "Together, the people, will never be defeated..." But after the exhilaration comes the hard fact - their battle is far from over. Both Jose Serra, Sao Paulo's mayor and Orlando Almeida Filho, the housing secretary, failed to respond to The Big Issue's request for an interview, however in a statement from the office of Serra, a spokesman explained that the city was "unable" to get involved in what they viewed as a judicial process.

"The whole process, as you see, does not include Sao Paulo [city administration] at all," he said in an email. He refused to be drawn on long term plans, but admitted that the previous administration "had expressed an interest in developing a policy to use empty buildings in the centre for social housing. The current administration does not discard the whole rationale of this idea, but the cost of real estate in the Se area is one of the most expensive in the city and so it is not really viable."

In an interview with Brazilian magazine Caros Amigos [Dear Friends] in December, Mr Almeida Filho was less guarded. He said that favelas and buildings like Prestes Maia should be "destroyed"."You know that promiscuity unfortunately prevails in these people. They aren't consumers, they don't go to Mappin [a local department store] to buy a tie, they don't go to the theatre to buy tickets. What are we going to have in the centre of our city - a new favela, a new slum?" he added. "At the end of the day we are still facing eviction and we are still in the same position," says Jomarina. "There is relief, but we need to wait to see if they can actually come up with affordable homes for our families."

Ivonete is trying to be upbeat, but the last few weeks have taken their toll. "We are hoping for a positive response from the housing secretary," she says, sounding tired. "I don't know what's going to happen — but we keep on fighting together."

She has the force of the people behind her. In his fifth floor apartment, where a dream catcher hangs above the door, 38-year-old Lamartine Brasiliano da Silva refuses to give in. "This movement is what saved me," he says. "It gave me a sense of worth. The situation is not looking good. But there exists a tomorrow. There's hope." Additional reporting by Anna Mack .

Fact File Brazil POPULATION: 182.8 million. Brazil is Soutfc America's biggest country taking up almost half the continent.

POLITICS: Celebrations broke oat in October 2002 when Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, a former shoeshine boy and metal worker popularly known as Lula, became Brazil's first left-wing president in four decades. The former union firebrand promised to end hunger, as well as tackle corruption and Brazil's economic woes, improve education and create jobs. However, he has been criticised for the slow pace of agrarian reforms and faced claims of corruption within his party in 2005.

SOCIETY: Brazil has one of the world's most unfair distributions of wealth. The majority of the country's arable land is owned by a handful of rich families while many are landless. A third of the population live in poverty in urban favelas, or slums. Levels of human rights abuses remain high with corrupt and ineffective policing and widespread use of torture. Activists continue to be threatened, attacked and killed. Statistics from BBC and Amnesty International

A movement for people who have no roof of their own

Movimento Sem Teto do Centre (MSTC), the Roofless Movement of the Centre, started in the 90s as an urban equivalent to the already established Brazilian landless movement MST (Movimento Sem Terra) which fights to gain land for displaced and poverty stricken rural workers. Parallel movements are growing in cities across Brazil.

Led by a committee of activists, recruitment is by word of mouth. Members, who are background checked, do not take part in an occupation until they have been with the movement for a year.

In 1997 the movement occupied its first building. In 2002, 468 families -some 2.000 people occupied the Prestes Maia building, the largest occupation in South America. A year later the movement occupied four buildings. MSTC has held up to 13 buildings at any one time.

Owners of Prestes Maia Jorge Hamuche and Eduardo Amorim are thought to owe almost £1 million in unpaid taxes on the building. I In 2004 the UN recommended the renovation of Prestes Maia to be used as social housing. Human rights groups have also expressed concerns about the "forced eviction" of the residents,

The Sao Paulo city housing department will offer temporary hostel accommodation (separating men and women) and an emergency grant of £68 per month for those evicted from MSTC occupied buildings. It claims it is committed to finding affordable housing and is currently working on the improvement of 18 favelas (slums) in the city.

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